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On the International Competition of Carbon Currency and China 's Strategy
发布时间2017-04-17 20:55:00

When carbon emissions become the boundary of global economic growth, carbon emissions are increasingly evolving into a scarce resource. The history of international monetary competition shows that energy billing is often the beginning of the rise of currency. In the context of a low-carbon economy, international currency competition around pricing and settlement functions of carbon emissions trading (hereinafter referred to as carbon trading) will intensify. China as the largest supplier of CDM mechanism , the RMB has become a carbon trading valuation and settlement currency there is a historic opportunity. It is necessary to provide the internal basis and practical guidance for the development of China's carbon finance and the process of internationalization of RMB. It is necessary to study the international competition of carbon currency and China's strategy. In the near term, the carbon price competition in China's perspective is how the RMB participates in the international competition between the carbon trading valuation and the settlement currency. At this time, the carbon emission right embodies the quasi-commodity attribute. In the long term, when the "carbon standard" international monetary system becomes a development trend, it will deeply affect the international monetary competition pattern and the internationalization process of RMB. At this point, carbon emissions in addition to quasi-commodity attributes, but also reflects the credit currency properties.


A Theoretical Study on the Influencing Factors of Carbon Currency Competition


One country's currency has the three functions of trading medium, value storage and pricing unit. The international competition of carbon currency is mainly based on the competition of carbon trading pricing and settlement function, that is, how is a country's currency in transnational carbon emissions trading Trading media and pricing unit functions to occupy a larger share. Foreign scholars focus on carbon emissions rights of goods, money and financial properties, less direct study of carbon trading pricing and settlement of international competition in currency issues. Carbon emission rights are based on institutional constraints of scarce resources, with large energy characteristics, still have a commodity attribute, which can be selected from the international trade valuation of currency selection theory to find support. In international trade, the factors that affect the valuation and settlement currency selection are mainly in the following aspects. First, the market share of the market, that is, a country's market share and its currency with the proportion of the currency there is a clear positive correlation; Second, the degree of financial market perfection, that is, the more developed financial markets, the more likely to choose this currency as the currency; Is the product heterogeneity, that is, the greater the heterogeneity of export commodities, the greater the probability of selecting the currency; Fourth, the status of trade countries, that is, most of the trade between developed countries to export currency pricing (Grassman law), developed countries and Most of the trade between developing countries uses currency settlement in developed countries. Carbon currency competition as a special manifestation of international monetary competition, but also from the international monetary competition in the relevant theory to find support. International monetary competition is affected by many factors, the representative theory mainly has the following aspects. First, the overall strength, mainly in the economic scale, economic strength and opening degree, trade scale and trade model, financial markets and financial system, political status and other indicators as the representative; Second, monetary characteristics, including the currency price and settlement, Monetary transaction convenience, monetary credibility and other indicators, the three functions of the currency between the mutual influence, there is synergies; Third, geopolitics, including political and geographical role, monetary status and sphere of influence, the government to promote a monetized The fourth is the scale effect, that is, because the use of international currency has a network of externalities, making the international currency alternative with conversion costs, thus forming the historical inertia of currency use and currency conversion "overturned" phenomenon (from gradual change to mutation). By applying the above theories to the analysis of carbon currency competition, it can be found that national comprehensive strength, monetary transaction convenience, carbon market share, financial market perfection and carbon credit difference are the important factors influencing the competition of carbon currency.


Second, the international competitive environment of carbon currency and its impact on the internationalization of RMB


(A) the formation of carbon trading pricing and settlement market mechanism background


At the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, more than 150 countries jointly developed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) with a view to controlling greenhouse gas emissions and reducing their negative impact on social development and human survival. It is the world's first international cooperation convention to curb greenhouse gas emissions and deal with global warming to human harm. At the climate conference held in Kyoto, Japan, in December 1997, the Kyoto Protocol was adopted by representatives of 149 countries and regions. The Convention mainly restricts greenhouse gas emissions from developed countries, which stipulates that emissions of six types of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide in all developed countries, will be reduced by 5.2% over 1990. The Kyoto Protocol also provides three complementary and flexible market mechanisms, namely, International Emissions Trading (IET), Joint Implementation Mechanism (JI), and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). These three flexible market mechanisms are mainly used to reduce the cost of reductions in countries to address public environmental problems. February 16, 2005 "Kyoto Protocol" came into effect, greenhouse gas emission reductions can be traded as intangible goods, international carbon emissions management system also will be born. Since then, in the framework of the "Kyoto Protocol", countries continue to strengthen cooperation in the field of carbon governance, "Copenhagen Agreement" and follow-up summit will continue to address climate change as an important issue to pay attention to the international carbon emissions management system development and Perfect to provide a broad space. In the low-carbon economy, low-carbon finance, low-carbon energy and technology and other areas of international cooperation exchanges, with the rapid growth of global carbon transactions, the trading platform of mutual integration, which based on different carbon trading market mechanism is bound to require multiple The currency of the valuation of currency with the corresponding, around the carbon trading pricing and settlement of the international competition is inevitable.


(B) the status of carbon trading pricing and settlement of international competition


Since the Kyoto Protocol came into effect, the world's carbon trading volume has grown rapidly and the carbon market has developed rapidly. Global carbon trading volume in 2011 has reached 176 billion US dollars, compared with 2005 increased by 15 times. In 2013 the world's carbon trading volume reached 12 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, up 14% over 2012. With the "Kyoto Protocol" the first commitment period is about to expire, the international carbon emissions prices affected by its decline, but overall, the global carbon trading volume is still showing growth. The EU is one of the earlier economic entities to carry out carbon emissions trading and build a carbon market, and the euro has a dominant position in the competition for carbon trading and settlement currency. The EU market has become the most important carbon finance market so far. In the quota-based market, the EU's carbon trade volume reached $ 148 billion in 2011, accounting for 84% of the world's total. The huge market share determines that more than 60% of the world's available carbon emissions are linked to the euro. The dollar is currently the currency of carbon trading after the euro. Although the United States has not yet signed the "Kyoto Protocol", there is no mandatory emission reduction obligations, but the United States has the world's leading climate exchanges and carbon trading platform, combined with the US government to implement the Energy New Deal and the dollar in the international currency competition that has the advantage of the formation of the history Inertia, have prompted the dollar in the carbon trading currency competition pattern occupies an important position. Britain has been a strong implementation of carbon emission reduction countries, London, the global carbon trading center occupies an important position, the pound in the international carbon trade also has a certain influence. In addition, Japan also strive to raise the international status of the yen through carbon trading. At the same time, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Singapore, the United Arab Emirates, India, Brazil and other countries have or will soon set up a carbon exchange, and are using the local currency price. These countries are expected to take the carbon trading Express, to enhance the local currency in the international monetary system in the position to accelerate the ranks of the world's leading international currency, which makes carbon currency competition is increasingly fierce.


(C) the development prospects of the "carbon standard" international monetary system and its impact on the internationalization of the renminbi


Carbon currency as a supplementary currency issue will effectively reduce carbon emissions. Wang Ying et al. (2009) proposed the system design of the "carbon standard" international monetary system, including the total amount of carbon money and the right of carbon currency issuance, the possibility of the full circulation of carbon currency compatible with the existing system, Exchange rate system and borders management agencies. The Yangtze River Business School Task Force (2013) proposed the "gold + carbon finance" common currency system, which would have to make the Triffin problem solvable, better than the paper money reserve function, better than the traditional monetary flexibility, The common interests of all countries, carbon finance can be free to advance and retreat, and many other advantages. But it is undeniable that the implementation of the "carbon standard" is confronted with many challenges and uncertainties, and it is also faced with the resistance of the vested interests, the historical inertia and the huge conversion costs. The development prospects of the "carbon standard" international monetary system will directly affect the strategies and strategies for the implementation of national currency participation in carbon currency competition. "Carbon standard" The establishment of the international monetary system requires a long process, to gradually promote the gradual integration. This process has to go through several stages, namely the establishment of carbon standards, the convergence of carbon currencies, the birth of international unified carbon currency. The implementation of the single "carbon standard" international monetary system is more difficult, more likely to be the carbon standard and the carbon standard + other international currency mixed standard system. And in the mixed standard, in the international carbon trade in the market share of relatively high currency will also become the dominant international currency.


Although low-carbon emissions are the general trend of world economic development, but because of the current currency status of different countries, vested interests are different, different national conditions, different carbon emission pressures and potential, treat carbon currency internationalization of different attitudes. In the international game of carbon currency, both the "prisoner's dilemma" game between the world and the "cockroach game" between the United States and the EU, as well as the "pig game" between the developed and the developing countries, Showing a diversified, dynamic, multiple of the game characteristics. China has been involved in the game by the initial passive, and gradually transformed into the current increasingly active participation. With the promotion of the international status of the renminbi and the further improvement of China's carbon trading market, China will also be from the "pig game" in the passive waiting side into active party.


Third, the RMB participation in carbon currency competition conditions considerations


China is the largest developing country and carbon emission country, is also the largest victim of climate change, is currently facing the economic development and economic development mode to change the dual task, with greater potential for emission reduction, which are made for our country "International commitment to carbon intensity reduction" laid the foundation. China as a developing country, in accordance with the provisions of the Protocol does not need to bear emission reduction obligations, but China consciously bear the responsibility of energy conservation, commitment to 2020 GDP per unit of carbon emissions will be reduced by about 40% in 2005. In this context, Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Hubei, Kunming, Dalian Energy or Environmental Exchange have been set up, they are China's carbon financial market development provides a public platform. The establishment of these environmental exchanges greatly enhanced China's voice in the international market.


As of May 23, 2014, China's six major carbon exchanges of carbon trading volume of 395. 39 million tons, turnover of 1.4 billion yuan. At present, China is the world's largest carbon trading CDM mechanism provider. As of the end of September 2010, China has 953 projects in the United Nations Clean Development Mechanism successfully registered, the annual reduction of greenhouse gas about 230 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, the number of projects and annual emission reduction ranks first in the world. If there is a strong RMB support, China will become the most important carbon trading market, in the global re-allocation of environmental capacity, China will occupy a place. Can not be ignored, the RMB participation in carbon currency international competition is also facing unfavorable factors. First, the legal and institutional basis for carbon trading is not strong enough. Although China has been involved in the signing of the "Kyoto Protocol", but there is no legislation in the country to force mandatory emission reduction, the views, notices such as the development of a strong legal status, there is no total control of greenhouse gas emissions, relying solely on voluntary CERs (CERs) provided by the CDM mitigation project are difficult to protect, and carbon emission reductions can not be scarce resources. It is difficult to build a prosperous carbon trading market, and it is very difficult for RMB to become a settlement for carbon trading Currency, which largely hampered the development of carbon finance markets. Second, China is currently the world's largest supplier of CDM projects, but CERs based on project development have no pricing power in the international market and are at the bottom of the "smiling curve" in the international market.


Due to the lack of heterogeneity of carbon credits, in China as a seller of international carbon transactions, often choose the dollar, the euro and other international currencies to settle. Again, China's carbon trading market is far from the European market, carbon finance market is not high level of improvement. Although the exchanges have been established, but they lack a unified trading system, can not effectively integrate resources, high transaction costs, market efficiency is relatively low. In addition, the market trading tools and products are also more missing, whether it is the development of primary products or derivative products are in the embryonic stage. Finally, because the capital project can not be freely convertible, the RMB is not yet a global pricing currency, the renminbi's international currency status is still relatively low. The choice of international currency has the synergy between historical inertia, network externality and different monetary functions, which greatly hinders the international currency competition in RMB participation in carbon trading.


Fourth, the carbon strategy under the international competition in China strategy


Low-carbon economic development is the main tone of world economic development, the RMB participation in carbon currency international competition is difficult to avoid. Insight into the historical logic of the international monetary competition logic, and international commodities, especially energy pricing and billing binding is often the starting point of a country's currency and catalyst. Low-carbon economy and the rapid development of the carbon market so that the internationalization of the RMB usher in a rare historical opportunity. The current carbon market in China is still in its infancy, carbon trading market share is not large, carbon products, heterogeneity is not strong, coupled with the RMB capital projects can not be fully convertible, the RMB carbon emission pricing currency conditions are not mature The However, China is a potential carbon reduction power, with the expansion of the scale of carbon trading, the improvement of the RMB international currency status and the accelerated pace of capital market opening, the RMB participation in carbon currency competition conditions will be improved. Objectively, the carbon trading market supply side presents a diversified trend, there is the possibility of diversification of carbon trading pricing currency, which for the RMB to become a carbon trading valuation currency to bring a rare historical opportunity. As the largest supplier of the CDM mechanism, China should seize this opportunity to take effective measures to promote the international competition of RMB participation in carbon trading valuation currency. China's carbon currency strategy by the "external active participation in the international monetary system of low-carbon reform, the implementation of RMB and carbon-related products, pricing binding binding" two parts. In the foreign strategy, China should actively participate in global carbon governance, take the initiative to deal with global climate change, promote the international monetary system of low-carbon reform, effectively enhance the international status of the RMB. In the internal strategy, to establish an effective carbon currency support system. Carbon currency competition should not be carried out separately from the low-carbon development, need to integrate into the RMB internationalization, low-carbon economic development, carbon finance market and service system to build them. China should build a bottom-up support system consisting of carbon emission control policy support, carbon trading market, carbon finance service system and carbon currency trading channel,Carbon currency trading channels and other supporting system for the RMB to participate in carbon currency competition to provide "four in one" support.


(A) to carbon emissions control policy to support the RMB to participate in carbon currency competition from the national level to fully understand the positive construction of carbon trading market strategic significance, as soon as possible to establish the total carbon trading mechanism of laws and regulations to protect. Will be the development of carbon finance into the development of low-carbon economy within the framework of the strategy to carbon intensity reduction commitments and "carbon budget balance sheet" as the basis to promote climate management. Through the formulation of policies and the establishment of the total carbon emissions trading mechanism, so that carbon emission reduction into a scarce resource, which in the country first to form a RMB-denominated carbon trading pricing requirements, and then the formation of international trading needs.


(B) to support the RMB carbon market trading system to participate in carbon currency competition to make stronger and stronger domestic carbon trading market as the basis, to build multi-level carbon trading system. Establish a unified carbon finance trading rules, speed up the construction and improvement of China's carbon trading market, and promote the further development of carbon finance. In the near future, the functions of the existing carbon exchange should be fully realized, and all regions of the country should be encouraged to actively build a regional market for carbon trading. In the long term, resources should be integrated on the basis of the full development of local and regional exchanges and gradually established a unified national transaction market.


(3) Supporting the RMB to Participate in the Carbon Currency Competition with the Carbon Financial Service System First, we will increase the technological content of the carbon finance products, increase the carbon emissions rights of China and the heterogeneity of carbon finance products, and enhance the competitiveness and pricing ability of carbon trading. To this end, the domestic financial institutions to change their minds, pay attention to the development prospects of carbon finance, and actively expand the carbon finance business model. China is currently in the carbon trading market has CDM forward transactions, carbon structural products, carbon trust plan, carbon funds, carbon energy efficiency financing projects, on this basis, should improve the CDM project development technology, learn from international experience, to carry out carbon futures, Carbon swaps, carbon securities and other carbon financial derivatives financial innovation, rich carbon financial products varieties. Second, we should actively promote the internationalization of RMB, the RMB exchange rate and interest rate reform and capital account opening process, improve the monetary and financial conditions of carbon trading, promote carbon trading RMB pricing, and enhance the convenience of carbon financial products transactions. In addition, we should further accelerate the development of China's carbon trading intermediary organizations. Carbon reduction is a kind of virtual goods. Under the CDM mechanism, the operation steps are complicated, the technical content is high, the development procedure is complicated, the transaction contract involves overseas customers, and the specialized intermediaries need to be cultivated to carry out. By leading more domestic securities companies, fund companies, futures companies and other institutional investors to join the carbon trading intermediaries among the team to form a core competitiveness of the carbon finance service supply chain, thereby enhancing the pricing of carbon products The


(4) to support the RMB currency in the carbon currency trading channels At present, China should issue RMB-denominated carbon coupons, carbon funds to launch RMB-denominated carbon finance product innovation, the formation of carbon trading renminbi-denominated binding rights, the establishment of RMB and carbon financial products pricing channels.


 
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