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Analysis of time trends and regional differences in carbon emissions
发布时间2017-03-28 16:12:00

I. Introduction

With the rapid economic development, China's carbon dioxide emissions from the 2,244 million tons in 1990 quickly increased to 7.12 billion tons in 2008, becoming the number one more than the United States (the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2008). Based on the longitudinal comparison of carbon emissions historical data, China's cumulative carbon emissions in the past 100 years between 1990 and 1990 were about 11 billion tonnes, and the cumulative carbon emissions in the 1990-2010 period exceeded 240 (US Oak Ridge National Laboratory Information Analysis Center data. How to achieve economic growth and pragmatic reduction in the process of industrialization, to grasp the historical stage of China's carbon emissions, to explore the possible peak time and carbon emissions regional differences are Basic and key.

Second, the literature review

From the 1990s to the present, international organizations and governments in the carbon dioxide emission reduction efforts and the game has never stopped, in decades of practice has also formed a large number of research literature. This article will discuss trends in time and space distribution of carbon emissions of Chinese literature two aspects to sort out.

(1) Study on the time trend of China's carbon emissions

1. China's carbon emissions in the stage and the trend of change. The scholars' research on this problem begins with the examination of the existence and inflection point of the environmental Kuznets curve. Jalil and Syed conducted a cointegration analysis on the EI of China's carbon dioxide emissions, and found that there was an inverted U-type relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions. The study of Li Guozhi and Li Zongzhi supported this view and considered that the current situation (The curve, carbon emissions are still in a monotonically increasing stage.) Sun Tao, Yan Tingwu, He Xiaogang and Zhang Yaohui and so that economic growth and the environment was N. The results show that China's carbon emissions do not exist, (Carbon dioxide emissions are divided into three stages, that China is in the "relative emission reduction" stage.

2. China's carbon emissions peak and peak time. When China's carbon emissions to reach the peak is not only an important issue of domestic economic and social development, but also caused the international energy, climate and other relevant research institutions of concern. The US Energy Foundation and the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) in the "China 2050 low-carbon development path: energy demand and carbon emissions scenario analysis" report pointed out that in the most stringent "to strengthen the low carbon" situation, carbon emissions may 2030 to achieve peak. Zhu Yongbin et al. (2009) estimated China's carbon emissions to 2040 based on energy consumption. Qu Shen Ning (2010) using the model to predict the Chinese STIRPAT peak time for the 2020-2045 years. Zhao Zhongxiu and other based on different oil prices were predicted, that China's carbon inflow point will appear in 2022 the earliest. He Jiankun (2013) argues that China's peak in 2030 must meet two conditions, that is, the rate of decline in carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP must be higher than the GDP growth rate, the unit energy consumption of carbon dioxide emission intensity decline rate is greater than the annual growth rate of energy consumption. Chai Qi Min et al. (2015) used IAM (model to analyze the four paths and scenarios that achieved the peak in 2030, believing that at this time the peak will shift the total amount of the economy by 3%. The cumulative reduction of more than 20 billion Ton.

(2) Study on the regional differences of carbon emissions in China

1. Study on the difference of carbon emissions in each province. Wanlun, Sun Bo, etc. (2014) using the Gini coefficient of inter-provincial carbon emissions differences, found that the Gini coefficient were lower than 0.3, that is, little difference between provinces. (2011) shows that the total carbon emission and carbon intensity show positive spatial autocorrelation, and there is a high degree of aggregation in the local space, and the carbon intensity Polarization is more severe than carbon.

2. Study on the distribution of carbon emissions in the region. Wang Qiang et al. (2011) analyzed the temporal and spatial characteristics of carbon emissions from the perspective of China's industrial economy transition, and concluded that the spatial distribution of carbon emissions tends to be "isolated" and the number of low-carbon areas is increasing. Zhao Weitai et al. (2011) pointed out that the intensity of carbon emission in the eight regions showed a trend of three differentiation, and the intensity of carbon intensity in the region was similar. The differentiation of carbon intensity between regions was the main reason for the widening of national differences. Yang et al. (2012) decomposed the regional differences in carbon dioxide emissions and studied the influencing factors and found that the regional differences in carbon emission intensity were greater than those of the per capita carbon emissions. The overall differences in carbon emissions under the three regional divisions In the region, the overall difference in carbon emissions under the eight regional divisions is mainly due to interregional differences. Deng Jixiang et al. (2014) analyzed the regional differences and evolution characteristics of carbon emissions in China. It was found that the carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions in the eight regions were increasing year by year. The proportion of carbon emissions in the northeast, Beijing and Tianjin and eastern coastal areas Year after year decline, other areas are up or remain unchanged.

To sum up, there are three main problems: First, China as a country without industrialization, in theory, carbon emissions did not achieve a comprehensive "technical clean" stage, the use of EI} (inverted U model test need to distinguish between different Carbon emission indicators; the second is based on different scenarios to predict the peak time, the choice of the scene, the slight adjustment of the parameters may be a number of disparate results, so that predictions fall into a meaningless "confidence interval"; The regional differences in carbon emissions are analyzed only by means of a single carbon emission indicator, and the study is not comparable. German economist Hoffman draws the conclusion through the study of historical data from 20 countries: China's industrialization is starting late, but industrial structure change and carbon emissions will still show the general trend of industrialization.This paper will be based on the general law of carbon evolution in the process of industrialization , From the mechanism of the study to the empirical test, from the time trend of the stage to determine the peak to predict the spatial differences in clustering Convergence analysis, comprehensive deconstruction of the status quo of China's carbon emissions, emission reduction and policy recommendations.

Third, the evolution of the law of the industrialization process and mechanism of carbon emissions

Whether it is (DIA) historical data or the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IP () () reported that the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration changes have shown that most of the global carbon dioxide emissions are concentrated in the last half century of the industrial revolution Therefore, the study of carbon dioxide emissions and their laws should be based on the background of the industrialization process, to explore the economic scale in the process of the promotion of industrial structure changes, the level of technology to enhance the general trend of the evolution of industrialization Possible Impacts of Carbon Emissions and Their Mechanisms.

1. China's carbon emissions in the historical stage of the judge. China's industrialization started late, in the developed countries to open industrial decades later, China's carbon dioxide is almost zero emissions in the state. In 1900, for example, China's total carbon dioxide emissions of 9.53 million tons, per capita emissions close to 0, while the United States over the same period the annual emissions of 76,511 tons, per capita emissions of more than 10 tons. Even in New China in 1949, China's carbon dioxide emissions were only 59.35 million tons, per capita emissions of 0.11 tons, while the United States over the same period has more than 2.1 billion tons of emissions, per capita emissions close to Qiao Tan. Therefore, compared with the developed countries, China's industrial carbon emissions should be from the "fifth plan" in 1953, 1953 - 2012 China's total carbon dioxide and per capita emissions are more consistent, showing a trend of increasing year by year. It can be seen that the total carbon dioxide emissions and per capita emissions are clearly in the rapid rise before the peak stage, and the carbon intensity in 1977-1978 as the dividing point, after the growth of the previous period began to decline steadily down, down U-type change trend is basically formed.

In the second half of the medium-term phase of China's industrialization, carbon emissions are in the second stage (S2) of emission intensity peaks, positive per capita emissions and total peak emissions. At this stage, the domestic economy continues to expand, economic restructuring and industrial restructuring has not yet been completed, technological progress in a short time is not enough to promote per capita and total carbon emissions decline. Therefore, based on the understanding of the stage of economic development and carbon emissions, in the international carbon game, the Chinese government proposed to reduce the carbon intensity (rather than per capita carbon emissions or total) target 40% -45% is a reality Consideration and scientific basis.

2. Law of evolution of carbon emissions based on the predicted China's carbon emissions peak time. Theoretical and empirical studies have shown that the relationship between carbon intensity, per capita carbon emissions and total carbon emissions in the process of industrialization is real, and that the estimation of the time model based on the three indicators of carbon emissions has estimated three vertex correspondence Of the time distance: in the process of industrialization, need to go through 68 years to reach the peak of carbon intensity, the need to reach the peak per capita in 116 years, need 137 years to reach the peak of total carbon emissions. Corresponding to this, the carbon emission intensity of the inverted vertex to the per capita carbon emissions inverted U vertices of the time distance of about 480116.75-68.30) year, from the per capita carbon emissions inverted U to the total amount of carbon emissions inverted U vertex distance of about 21 (137.21-116.75) years.

Using this conclusion to predict the peak time of carbon emissions in China, the peak of China's carbon emission intensity appears before and after 1978, and if the general trend of carbon evolution in the process of industrialization, China's per capita carbon emission peak will appear at 2026 01978 +48) years, carbon emissions peak time will appear in 204,702,026 + 21) years.

Fourth, the study of regional differences in carbon emissions in China

The stage analysis and peak prediction of carbon emission are time trend and macro-study. The regional differences of carbon emissions belong to the spatial comparison and micro-basic research, which can form a complete understanding of the current situation of carbon emissions in China and the source of change. The study of regional differences will be carried out from two aspects: clustering analysis based on 2012 carbon emissions data, static study of carbon emissions regional differences; based on 1996 - 2012 carbon emissions data based on the convergence analysis, dynamic study of carbon emissions Differences in the trend of change.

In order to understand the differences in carbon emissions in various provinces and cities, we will cluster them according to the relevant indicators of carbon emissions, and examine the regional differences and links of carbon emissions more clearly through similar clusters. It is generally believed that the cumulative emission and annual emissions are the indicators that reflect the size of the regional emissions, and the two can be clustered as cluster variables. The per capita emissions and carbon intensity are the low-carbon technologies Index, which can be used as a clustering variable for technical clustering analysis. Cluster analysis is based on the I} - mean clustering method, which is clustered by three types of clusters and finally clustering results.

1. Total clustering results. The total quantitative clustering of clustering variables for cumulative carbon emissions from 1996 to 2012 and the carbon emissions for 2012 shows that there is no change in the cluster center without convergence through three iterations, and the maximum absolute coordinates of the three centers are 0, the sample class is no longer change, the formation of the total three categories of the final cluster center; the same time, ANOVA F statistics is large enough, the corresponding P value is similar to 0} clustering effect is reasonable.

2. To grasp the peak time of carbon emissions, reasonable planning emission reduction. First, from the time reasonable decomposition of emission reduction targets. From the current to the peak of the coming decades, the decomposition of emission reduction targets is increasing year by year or decreasing year by year, or the annual average spread, the need for a reasonable plan. Can be measured by the energy in the national economy in the production of elements of the elastic relationship between the decomposition of the annual emission reduction targets, high flexibility can reduce the emission reduction targets, reduce emissions on the economy, and vice versa to accelerate emissions reduction. Second, from the region on a reasonable allocation of emission reduction tasks. After establishing the annual emission reduction targets, we can further design a moderately tight emission reduction standard for the provinces according to the regional economic aggregate, population level and historical emissions, so that the total target can be completed in time, Effective regional sharing. Again, from the system design and policy regulation to prevent emissions of quick success and unrealistic. In the international pressure on emissions and the domestic people and environmental groups on the ecological construction of the urgent requirements, emission reduction targets easily pushed up, therefore, should prevent the fact that the "sports" emission reduction. Is how the mayor and other academicians are worried that the high emission reduction targets may lead to China's industrialization "halfway". Ding Zhongli academicians also believe that policy makers in the emission reduction planning and system design to grasp the reality, not by the international emission reduction torrents and kill.

3. To understand the regional differences in carbon emissions, as soon as possible to establish carbon ecological compensation system. Regional differences in carbon emissions indicate that the western region has become a net export site for the value of carbon ecosystem services, the rapid rise in carbon emissions. Therefore, whether it is based on ecological justice or environmental protection considerations, should be established nationwide as soon as possible carbon ecological compensation system. The system design needs to focus on three problems.

(1) the determination of compensation standards. Should be the cost of emission reduction as a compensation standard, so that the region in the development of economic and emission reduction between the realization of marginal revenue balance. Emission reduction and economic development can make the region profit, to promote the region according to their own resources to choose their own development model, which is not only conducive to pragmatic reduction, but also to promote the balanced development of regional economy.

(2) the problem of determining the object of injury. The determination of the object of compensation is to solve the problem of who compensation, according to the regional assessment criteria, according to higher than the standard is to fill, lower than the standard principle of compensation in the country to establish a compensation system.

(3) compensation efficiency. In order to prevent the extreme imbalance in the process of compensation, to ensure the efficiency of carbon compensation, so that the relationship between compensation and compensation more corresponding, in the late implementation of the system should be based on the actual balance of carbon emissions in the region, the country is divided into several carbon "Watershed", compensation can be carried out inside the carbon "watershed".

This paper attempts to circumvent the trend of carbon emissions in the past scenario studies, and to estimate and judge China's carbon emissions based on the general rules of carbon emissions in the process of global industrialization. This is unavoidably There is another problem, that is, the process of industrialization in China and the world average process of industrialization differences. If China's industrialization process is faster than the world average, then the peak will be earlier than the forecast time; otherwise, the peak may lag behind the time. Which is limited by the relevant theory and data support, this article can only be based on Hoffman on the industrialization of countries have a consistent conclusion, assuming that China and the world's industrialization process the same speed, and thus the lack of further discussion of the differences between the two Become the biggest problem of this study. Therefore, the follow-up study can start from the factors that embody the general characteristics of industrialization, construct the evaluation model of industrial difference degree, and measure the specific contribution rate of these factors to carbon emissions, so as to form an accurate understanding of China's carbon emissions reality, Row of specific policy tools.

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