After two hikes in the year, one cut and domestic oil prices entered the "period of volatility". Why is it that domestic oil prices are significantly more expensive than those in the United States? Why are oil prices not connected to international standards? How does international oil prices move in a volatile geopolitical situation? How to deal with the impact of high oil prices? To answer these questions must be from China's energy development present situation and facing the challenge, standing on the position of independent and objective, from a strategic and long-term perspective and global perspective to look at, otherwise will be emotional logic of let off steam traps.
Why is China's oil price more expensive than America's?
There is no denying that the price of refined petroleum products in China is significantly higher than that in the United States, and the average price per litre is about 1.8 yuan higher. Countries from the purchase cost of crude oil close to the international market, because the crude oil quality, the price (fob or cif), freight, insurance premium and slight differences, that is to say naked national oil prices. The key to the difference in the price difference between China and the us is the difference in taxes. The United States is a typical energy intensive, the car is large, the refrigerator is large capacity, despite the financial crisis hit U.S. oil consumption by the pre-crisis 930 million tons to 840 million tons in 2011, but still accounts for about 21.4% of the world's total oil consumption, about twice the oil consumption in China. The us imposes a fuel tax of 41 cents per gallon, which accounts for about 10.7 per cent of oil. According to the calculation, there are about 30% of China's gasoline prices (consumption tax, VAT, urban maintenance construction and education surcharge, etc.). Thus it can be seen that the price of refined oil prices is basically close to China, and the higher oil price in China is higher than that of the United States.
Two, why can the United States impose a low fuel tax policy?
Since the price difference between China and the United States is due to the tax, why does the United States have a long-term low fuel tax policy? One is the United States has abundant oil and gas resources, especially Alaska in strategic restrictions, offshore oil exploitation, at present, the United States is second only to Russia, the world's third largest crude producer Saudi Arabia, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and ethanol gasoline in 2011, American oil production reached 437 million tons, in addition in recent years, the United States such as shale gas major breakthroughs were made in unconventional gas production. 2 it is not only the United States has the strongest overseas for resources comprehensive strength in the world, and major progress was made in the United States energy strategic adjustment in recent years, the us oil external dependency has fallen below 50%, especially the American oil imports from Canada, Mexico, venezuela and other major backyard and Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other Allies in the United States, the United States has been basically don't import oil from political unrest in areas such as Iran, Libya, the us is edging towards energy independence. Third, the United States is in the post-industrial development stage, oil consumption growth is stable or declining.
While our country basic does not have the conditions of low oil prices is an our country is in a stage of rapid growth of oil consumption, especially around one thousand cars has only 70 cars in China, the world's average level is 3 times of our country, the average in developed countries is 8 times of our country, our country car oil growth potential is tremendous. The second is the lack of oil resources in China. The current land yield is basically near the peak and there is little room for increase. Three is the external dependency of oil has reached 56.5%, but the strength of the overseas access to resources is insufficient, especially more than half of China's oil imports from the Middle East and north Africa and other areas of political unrest, since this year to tighten sanctions against Iran in the us and Europe, north and south Sudan war continually, which makes oil imports in China is facing a severe challenge. Fourth, the world has entered the age of high oil prices, and we face fundamental changes in the external environment. When developed countries into the industrial, energy and raw material prices are low, the high price of manufactured goods, but now when our country entered the industrialization, rising energy prices of raw materials, industrial products prices are lower. Five is the international oil price will not cheap, because of we are big customers and refined products low prices in the short term not only causes oil-hungry everywhere, is more serious is that will stimulate consumption, bring more severe oil supply security.
3. The price of refined petroleum products in China is the highest in the world?
When the Chinese people entered the eight-yuan period for gasoline, they didn't know that the price of refined petroleum products in China was at most moderate levels. Of course, some resource countries are cheaper, even as venezuela is only about three cents a litre. But countries and regions, such as Europe and Japan, are widely used for high oil prices, especially when two oil shocks forced Europe and Japan to curb oil consumption through high fuel taxes. According to the international energy agency's latest report, in February this year in major European countries gasoline between 12 to 15 yuan per liter, among them, the Italian up to 15 yuan per liter, considering that the international oil prices continue to rise since march, European countries are for oil coming into the era of 2 euro and painful. The price of gasoline in some European countries is roughly double that of our country. The price of gasoline in Japan is also not low, at 11.8 yuan per litre in February, or about 50 percent higher in China.
In the domestic oil pricing mechanism, when choosing the price decision, is it to consider studying the American model or the European model? From the perspective of future economic and social development, industrialization, urbanization and oil supply pattern, we can only learn from Europe and Japan.
Why are domestic oil prices not connected with international standards?
This is a question that many people often refer to, but this is clearly an irrational thinking, or a way of venting your emotions online. Because it is clear that any country, any oil company, is not because our income is low, we are poor, will sell cheap oil to us, we will not provide free oil relief. Before the reform and opening up, we could also implement low oil price policies and even plan rationing. But today is different, we have incorporated in the spring tide of the economic globalization, the oil supply more than half of the need to import from the international market, the future may even reach 70% external dependency.
In essence, globalized oil is freely distributed in the world and has a unified market price system. At present there are three important crude oil futures contracts in the world, were the New York mercantile exchange (NYMEX) light, sweet crude oil that is "west Texas intermediate (WTI)" futures contracts, London's international petroleum exchange (IPE) Brent Brent crude oil futures contract and the Singapore exchange (SGX) dubai acidic crude oil futures contracts. Among them, oil pricing in Europe and the United States is mostly reference to brent and west Texas intermediate oil futures. Of course, domestic oil price is the international crude oil market price, not the terminal sale price of a country, the terminal selling price in different countries and regions can be different.
But, as a carrier of income - laborer is still unable to free worldwide unified configuration, the free flow of laborer strictly limited by nationality, it also determines the laborer price - income may be on a global scale to form a unified standard, that is to say, laborer's income may not in line with international standards. Even within the same country, income levels vary from time to time. The first-tier cities, such as the north of China, are already well developed, with relatively high incomes and low incomes in the central and western regions, especially in rural areas.
5. The next stage of international oil price trend?
If you look at the oil market recently, it's interesting to see that the WTI oil price is turning back every time it approaches $110. It seems that $110 in the short term is a psychological high. Of course, international oil prices could be as high as $150 if there are major emergencies such as war. But according to current global economic growth fundamentals, the upper limit of the price volatility of the whole year is about $110, or the amount of time WTI is running at more than $110. So, given the current world there are still 900000 barrels per day oil demand increases, oil exploration and exploitation costs rise, and the Opec oil producers such as affordable price, the lower limit of the international oil price is about $80, or the possibility of WTI oil prices under $80 run will be small.
Oil price forecasts are highly uncertain. The recent Iranian nuclear issue is undoubtedly the biggest uncertainty affecting international oil prices this year. But the objective reason for looking at the situation is that, given that the United States is more likely to solve domestic problems and be busy with the presidential election, the probability of war is not that large in the short term. On the other hand, even if there are some war conflicts, if the strait of hormuz is really blocked, then Iran will be the enemy of the world, and it will not get any good results. In addition, recent Japanese and south Korean countries have taken a series of diplomatic steps to replace oil imports from Iran. In addition, major powers such as the us and Europe are entering the election year, and the need for elections will increase the regulation of commodity futures markets, which will depress oil futures speculation. Therefore, the next stage, with the advent of demand off-season, the current international oil prices about $10 to $15 a barrel geopolitical premium, will gradually out, that is to say, the international oil price is moderate back bigger possibility.
Overall, the world economy to low to moderate growth this year, oil supply and demand is still relatively loose, global liquidity is still loose, keep weakness of the dollar, and geopolitical risk factors make international oil prices will remain relatively high and volatile situation, the preliminary estimate, New York WTI crude oil futures market average price is about $100 a barrel, up $5 a barrel on the previous year. International oil prices have recently been predicted by international agencies. The IMF's world economic outlook spring report in April 2012 estimated that the world oil price (WTI, Brent, Dubai, three market prices) was set at $114.7 a barrel in 2012, up 10.7 per cent year on year. In April, the U.S. energy information administration (eia) estimated that WTI crude oil futures would average 105.7 yuan per barrel in 2012, up 11.4 percent year on year. In late April, a Reuters poll of 38 international agencies showed Brent crude futures average $117.3 per barrel in 2012, up 5.8% from a year earlier.
How to cope with rising international oil prices?
First, from a strategic point of view, we really should implement a high fuel tax policy. Fuel tax should be implemented in the true sense, adopt tax excluded in price, the terminal link, and don't like this price in tax is collected, in production, not to inhibit the action of the consumer behavior, everyone felt only a high oil prices. Price tax leverage is the most effective tool to save resources. We must save resources because oil resources are not renewable and existing resources are not available. From the perspective of history, there are about a billion people in the leading industrialized countries, consuming 60 percent of the world's energy for 100 years. Today, nearly 3 billion people, including China and India, enter the stage of industrialization. Although oil demand in the developed countries have already saturated, appear even negative growth, but the developed countries in the inventory of oil consumption is huge, emerging economies can only be to compete in the global less than half of the oil supply, visible future petroleum resource acquisition will be more and more difficult. Therefore, it is necessary to promote the establishment of China's saving mode and consumption mode through the fuel tax and other levers.
Second, we must invest more in improving our energy efficiency. The tax revenue generated by high fuel tax and some energy benefits should be invested heavily in the field of energy efficiency. For example, the production process, setting strict energy efficiency standards, requires manufacturers to produce products such as low fuel consumption, energy-saving cars and household appliances. We will increase investment in energy efficiency technologies and subsidize products that produce high energy efficiency.
Third, we should energetically develop renewable resources such as solar energy, wind energy and biomass energy. In particular, we should accelerate the development of electric vehicle technology and promote the revolutionary progress of petroleum substitution. The development of renewable energy will not only meet the requirements of improving the domestic ecological environment, but also meet the global warming trend.
Fourthly, we should also build a foothold in the country and further accelerate the exploration and development of domestic resources. First, we should vigorously improve the recovery of existing resources. Second is the shale gas, oil shale and other unconventional oil and gas exploration and development efforts, in recent years, the United States in shale gas and other unconventional resources development has made a major breakthrough, our country also has a huge potential in terms of some resources. Third, we should accelerate the development of offshore oil and gas development strategy and strive for substantial breakthroughs in technologies, equipment and actual production of offshore oil and gas resources.
In addition, should strengthen international energy cooperation, continue to adhere to the strategy of "going out", to expand overseas oil and gas resources supply capacity, further diversifying oil import sources, constantly improve the domestic oil and gas price formation mechanism, actively reform and improve the oil and gas market system and supervision system, accelerate the strategic reserve and commercial oil reserve system, ensuring our energy security.
