With the rapid development of economic globalization, China has welcomed the reform and opening up in the world trend and joined the WTO in 2001, made great achievements in economic development, and maintained a high level of international trade. China's GDP in 2010 reached 587.83 billion US dollars, became the world's second largest economy. At the same time, with the upgrading of the world industrial structure and international industrial transfer, international trade in services has increasingly become an important part of international trade and investment, and become one of the signs of economic development. Since the 21st century, the average annual growth rate of international trade in goods is 8.8%, while the international trade in services is 0.5% higher than that. However, China's international trade in services has not kept up with the level of trade in goods trade, trade deficit has expanded year by year; its exports accounted for the proportion of total exports of world trade services is not high, has been hovering around 4.5%, less than the US trade in services exports 1/3 China's international trade in services is relatively backward, the development of the current situation is worrying. In this case, the international service trade in recent years, the status quo and competitiveness of the index system analysis, and based on the Porter's diamond model for multiple linear regression empirical study, its conclusions and influencing factors to promote China's international trade in services development, enhance competition The level of force has considerable urgency and necessity.
First, the status quo of China's international trade in services
The most direct manifestation of the competitiveness of a country's trade in services is the total amount of trade in services in the country, including total imports and exports, exports, imports and their respective growth rates and world rankings. According to the latest data of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, China ranked fifth in the world trade export countries in 2013, the second largest import countries, but still have a certain gap compared to the United States. Import and export volume, exports, imports accounted for the proportion of the world is very low, China's international trade in services is not strong. Since the 21st century, the total import and export volume, export volume and import volume of China's total trade in services have been increasing year by year. The year-on-year growth rate and the ratio of the proportion of the world have also increased year by year. Among them, the total import and export volume in 2009 The amount of reverse trend, imports and roughly the same in 2008. In 2013, China's imports of international trade in services remained at a high rate of growth of US $ 329 billion, up 17.5% year on year. Exports amounted to US $ 21.06 billion, up 10.6% year on year and 6.1 percentage points lower than the import growth rate. Growth is faster than exports. Longitudinal comparison shows that although the total import and export volume of China's trade in services has increased, the deficit has continued to expand. In 2011, China's trade deficit in services reached US $ 54.9 billion, increasing to US $ 89.7 billion by 2012, and the total trade deficit in China by 2013 As much as $ 118.4 billion, China's international trade in services at a disadvantage.
Second, China's international service trade competitiveness index system analysis
The competitiveness of China's trade in services, through the establishment of the evaluation system can be its measurement and comprehensive evaluation. This study is based on the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, China Economic and Social Development Statistical Database and other official website to obtain data and data calculation and comparative analysis. This paper uses the display index and the analytical index to analyze the competitiveness of China's international service trade.
(A) display indicators
1, the international market share
The proportion of exports of a country (or region) to a total market share in the world market is the international market share. The formula can be expressed as: the international market share is 100%. It directly reflects the industry or a product (here refers to the international trade in services) the international competitiveness of the real state, horizontal comparison of international trade in services in the international market competitiveness, the greater the value of the greater export competitiveness. In 2013, China's international service trade market share of 4.6%, although ranked fifth in the world, but the proportion is very small, compared to the United States 14.3% and the United Kingdom 6.3% still have a big gap, its competitiveness is relatively weak, Space is huge.
2, trade competitiveness index (TC)
Trade Competition Index (TC), also known as Comparative Advantage In-dex (CAI), comparable import and export index (NTB), refers to a country's import and export trade balance of the total import and export trade ratio, Can be expressed as: X two urn go, where Xi refers to the trade competition index, Ei refers to the total amount of the product 'export, h refers to the product'. Xi ranges from [-1,1] when it is greater than. When the competitive strength, the closer the competitiveness of the stronger, and vice versa.
China TC index has been in a negative state since the 21st century (TC <0), the competitiveness is very weak, failed to reach the average level; and in recent years, TC index from 0 more and more remote, but the remote range is not large, There is a slight downward trend in the competitiveness of international trade in services. From the horizontal comparison, we can see that in the major international import and export of international trade in services in 2013, the UK's TC index is the highest, followed by the United States, while China's TC index is far less than the two countries, even lower than France, India and other countries, It shows that the competitiveness of China's international service trade is far less than that of the major countries in the world, and there is still a certain gap. There is still a need to develop good trade in services.
3, display comparative advantage index (RCA)
The comparative advantage (RCA) is a competitive measure of higher economic value proposed by Bela Barassa, an American economist, in 1976. RCA is a measure of competitiveness in a country Of the total imports of a certain product accounted for the proportion of total imports, and imports from the country's total imports accounted for the proportion of the total imports of a direct use of RCA that China's service trade dominant comparative advantage, Xc, Yc, respectively, said China's international trade in services Exports and China's total exports, Xw, Yw, respectively, said the world's international trade in services exports and the world's total exports, with the formula can be expressed. RCA with the relative value of the calculation, to a certain extent, to avoid the impact of national and world economic fluctuations , Which is a good indicator of the relative level and competitiveness of international trade in services.RCA indicator is also an indicator of trade structure and trade dependence, when RCA> 2.5 indicates that the international competitiveness of the industry has a strong competitive advantage , When the target living between 1.25-2.5, said there is a strong international competitiveness, living between 0.8-1.25 when the level of competitiveness in general, when The index is lower than 0.8, it means that the industry's international competitiveness is weak.From Table 4 we can see more than a decade China's international trade in services RCA index changes little, basically maintained at 0.40-0.51 between 2009, its index more Is the lowest 0.39, the competitiveness of international trade in services to the history of the weakest and China's international trade in services RCA index has been far below 0.8, indicating that China's international trade in services is very weak.
4, display competitive advantage index (CA)
Competitive Advantage (CA) is a competitive advantage derived from the comparative advantage of exports minus the comparative advantage of the industry's import. In contrast to RCA, CA will import and export at the same time, and further reflect the competitiveness of the industry, the formula 1: CA = RCA, trade import and China imports, Iw, Zw, respectively, said the world trade in services Imports and world imports. When CA <0 indicates that the trade competitiveness of the industry is at a relative competitive disadvantage, when CA = 0 indicates that the industry trade is self-balancing, when CA> 0 indicates that the competitiveness is in a comparative advantage, and the larger CA indicates the stronger the competitiveness. China's international trade in services show that the competitive advantage index is not much change, are negative, are less than 0, indicating that China's international trade in services competitiveness in phase d competitive disadvantage.
In short, China's TC, RCA and CA indices have not fluctuated, the rising trend is not strong, the international competitiveness is weak and the progress is small, and the competitiveness of China's international service trade has become a major problem to be solved.
(2) Disability indicators
International Trade in Services (SO):
Globalization of service trade, liberalization is the inevitable trend of world economic development. However, due to the level of service industry development and stage of different countries, the degree of opening up and control of trade in services is different. The degree of openness of service trade reflects the degree of openness of a country to participate in international trade, which reflects the degree of dependence of a country's economic growth on international trade market. The deeper the degree of international trade in services, the stronger the export capacity, the total export of services and market openness was positively correlated. Through the "China Statistical Digest 2013", the annual average annual exchange rate (median price) of RMB for major foreign currency in China and the annual GDP (million) provided by the National Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China.
In 2000, China's international service trade has a low degree of open SO and a small fluctuation, indicating that China's international service trade is relatively open to the outside world, its dependence on international trade market is low, and the export capacity of service trade is not strong.
Based on the above analysis of a series of indicators, we can see that China's international trade in services exports and developed countries have a certain gap, TC <O, RCA <0.8, CA <O, SO value is low and the rising trend is small. The overall competitiveness of China's international trade in services is weak. Since China's accession to the WTO in 2001, China's international trade in services has a certain amount of development, but the overall level of development is not high, and the national economy does not match. Service trade in China's low proportion of foreign trade, and ultimately will restrict the further development of China's commodity trade.
Third, empirical research
Michael Porter's "Diamond Model" answers a question of how a country can gain long-term international competitiveness in a particular industry. The model considers that the domestic economic environment of a country has a great influence on the potential of the enterprises to develop their own. The influence is the factors such as factors of production, demand factors, related industries and auxiliary industries, enterprise strategy, organizational structure and competitive state, opportunities, government behavior , Of which the first four are decisive factors. Based on the "diamond model", this paper uses SPSS.20 software to analyze the competitiveness of China's international service trade by multiple linear regression analysis, and quantitatively measure the influencing factors.
(A) the choice of indicators and data processing
In order to ensure the authenticity and reliability of the regression results, the model references a longer time interval, and the sample size is 2000 - 2013. As the competitiveness can not be directly measured, this study to trade in trade instead of competitiveness as the dependent variable (Y '). (X4), the second industry (X4), the second industry, the second industry, the second industry, the second industry, the second industry, the second industry, the second industry (X), the added value of the tertiary industry (X6) that related industries and auxiliary industries, to the national science and technology investment (X,) that government behavior; taking into account the availability of data, corporate strategy, organizational structure and competition State, the opportunity is not satisfied with the independent analysis of the data from the National Bureau of Statistics or the Chinese Ministry of Commerce to obtain, authoritative.
(B) model regression processing
According to the diamond model and econometric model set up: 1nY 'two a ten b, 1nX, ten b} 1nXz ten bs1nX. A is the parameter of the other factors to be exported, b is the parameter to be estimated, and e is the random perturbation term. In order to avoid the influence of the high correlation between the variables on the model standard, we use SPSS.20 software to stepwise regression the model, according to the set standard (P value corresponding to P value <0.05) Variables Foreign investment (X,) and exports (X3), dependent variable trade in services (Y ').
(C) the results and analysis
The actual use of foreign capital, the relationship between exports of goods and exports of services are significant, can explain the service export changes 99.0%.
1, the actual use of foreign capital
The model shows that the actual use of foreign capital has a significant positive impact on the import of services under the condition that other variables are under control. The actual use of foreign capital will increase the service export by 0.878% for every 1% increase. With the rapid development of global economic integration, the actual use of foreign capital in the role of international trade more and more obvious. The inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) can not only make up for the shortcomings of China's capital shortage, but also bring the scientific management methods to enhance the competitiveness of trade in services. The actual use of foreign capital than FDI more effectively reflect its competitiveness of the competitiveness of the service trade; China's Ministry of Commerce announced in 2013 China's actual use of foreign capital reached 115.586 billion US dollars, the actual use of foreign capital to become the most influential factors.
2, the total export of goods
The total export volume of goods has a positive effect on the export of services. For every 1% increase in total exports, the amount of fT will increase by 0.486%. As an important part of international trade, fT is promoted in the diamond model as a related industry and trade in services. China as a major export of goods, the development of goods trade process contains a great opportunity for trade in services, exports of goods greatly stimulated the export of China's trade in services.
Fourth, the proposal
Based on the objective and weak empirical results of the overall competitiveness of China's international service trade, this study draws the following suggestions to provide reference for enhancing the competitiveness of China's service trade.
(A) deepen reform and opening up, adhere to the "going out" strategy
Although the absolute value of the total import and export volume of international trade in China is high, the proportion of market share is extremely small, and there is a certain gap with the developed countries. The export growth rate is obviously lower than the import growth rate. At the same time, from the perspective of China's trade in services from 2000 to 2013, China's dependence on the international market is small; and the actual use of foreign capital is the most influential factor in competitiveness. The deeper the degree of foreign investment, One of the prerequisites for export is also deepening reform and opening up. Economic globalization and the development of tertiary industry require China's trade in services must adhere to the reform and opening up the line, and adhere to go out strategy. Adhere to the "going out" strategy, increase the degree of opening up is to enhance its international competitiveness of a very important measure.
(B) to meet the trend of knowledge economy, increase the intensity of personnel training
Since the beginning of the 21st century, the development of knowledge economy has become more and more obvious and important. The development of knowledge economy and the shortage of talent in China determine the urgency and importance of the cultivation of professional talents. China's export competitiveness lies in the export of services are mostly productive services, product profit margins less. Only to increase the intensity of personnel training in order to design and produce technology-based service products, change China's service trade exports in the low-end value-added chain of the status quo, to enhance the value-added services products.
(C) establish a brand awareness, increase brand building strategy
Based on the empirical research proposed in this paper, deepening reform and opening up is one of the most important suggestions, but combined with the actual situation, can not be ignored is to establish brand awareness, increase brand building strategy in order to make our service trade exports more competitive China's densely populated , In the goodsExports focused on labor-intensive products, exports in the service more focused on the production of service products, which not only led to low value-added exports of our products, while the importance of ignoring the importance of brand building. Service has an invisible feature, its brand influence is more important. Market awareness of the service had to rely on the establishment of its brand. In the international service trade market, the international service providers tend to monopolize the trend, China's trade in services exports should pay more attention to brand building and development than the manufacturing industry, so that their brand from the strong fight to break the monopoly trend, better in the International service trade market in a firm foothold.
